World Bank forecasts 32% spike in energy prices by 2026

Global commodity prices are projected to surge 23% in 2026 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and extreme weather patterns disrupt supply chains, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook released on Wednesday. Energy costs are forecast to lead the rally with a 32% increase next year, ending a three-year period of decline. Brent crude is expected to average $91 per barrel in 2026, a sharp rise from the $69 average recorded in 2025. This spike is attributed to depleted global oil inventories and a projected 5.2% drop in global supply—the largest contraction in 40 years outside of the 2020 recession. Food and Fertilizer Costs to Climb Food commodity prices are expected to rise by a cumulative 18% through 2027, with a 10% jump in 2026 followed by a 7% increase the following year. The World Bank identifies a "triple threat" of disrupted grain shipments, El Niño-related harvest failures, and soaring fertilizer prices, which are set to rise 14% in 2026. Under an adverse scenario where these risks converge, Brent could hit $105 a barrel by 2027, pushing food prices 12% above current baseline forecasts. Metals prices are also anticipated to reach record highs, growing 25% in 2026. This is driven by heavy investment in data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, precious metals are forecast to jump 40% as investors seek safe-haven assets amid heightening policy uncertainty. Fiscal Support and Global Impact The…