Warming Pacific to trigger intense rainfall and heat spikes across UAE through Q1 2027

The UAE faces a high probability of above-average temperatures and increased rainfall through the first quarter of next year as the El Niño weather phenomenon strengthens in the Pacific Ocean. The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) confirmed on Sunday, 18 October, that there is a 96 per cent probability of El Niño conditions prevailing from November 2026 through March 2027. Current climate indicators show significant warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperatures have risen considerably. According to the NCM, temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region reached 2.3°C above the long-term average. Projections for October and November 2026 suggest warming anomalies could approach 3°C, indicating a strong El Niño event that may disrupt global atmospheric circulation. Impact on UAE weather patterns While the forecast period begins in November, the NCM expects the phenomenon to start affecting local weather patterns more visibly in January 2027. The shift follows a period of La Niña conditions, which are characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures. The transition to El Niño typically brings hotter and wetter conditions to the Arabian Peninsula, though the NCM cautioned that the intensity and geographical distribution of rain remain dependent on regional atmospheric systems. The NCM stated that the UAE could experience higher-than-normal rainfall particularly toward the latter part of the forecast period, provided specific atmospheric conditions…