Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels via alternative routes

Middle East oil exports have climbed to 24.6 million barrels per day (bpd) for the week ending Thursday, 22 October, surpassing pre-conflict levels of 23.3 million bpd. Data from energy intelligence firm Kpler indicates that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have successfully bypassed the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining global supply despite heightened regional security risks. Strategic Pipelines Bypass Hormuz The recovery in volumes is largely attributed to a massive shift in logistics. According to Kpler, 40% of the region’s crude bypassed the Strait of Hormuz in September, a significant increase from just 17% prior to the escalation. Saudi Arabia has intensified use of its 1,201-km East-West Pipeline (Petroline), moving crude from eastern fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Similarly, the UAE has ramped up flows through the 406-km Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, which terminates outside the strait on the Gulf of Oman. For exports that still transit the waterway, producers are utilizing a sophisticated "shuttle" system. In August, more than 70% of crude crossing the strait underwent ship-to-ship transfers near Fujairah or Sohar. This process often involves tankers switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to navigate high-risk zones before transferring cargo to Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) for international delivery. Rising Costs and Market Volatility While volumes have stabilized, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the transition has not…