Helima Croft details how regional conflict reshapes Middle East energy strategy

Regional conflicts and geopolitical volatility are forcing Middle East energy producers to pivot toward infrastructure resilience and supply chain security, according to Helima Croft, RBC’s chief global commodities strategist. Speaking on Saturday, 1 August, the former CIA analyst noted that the current security environment has fundamentally altered how national oil companies (NOCs) manage risk and investment. Resilience over expansion Energy strategy in the Gulf is no longer solely focused on increasing output capacity. Croft highlighted that the primary shift involves hardening energy infrastructure against physical and cyber threats. This adjustment follows a series of regional escalations that have tested the stability of global oil markets and the physical security of extraction and transit points. The strategic shift is driven by the necessity to maintain market share while navigating a high-risk maritime and terrestrial security landscape. For UAE and regional stakeholders, this means increased capital expenditure toward redundant systems and diversified export routes to bypass potential chokepoints in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Market implications and intelligence Drawing on her background at the US Central Intelligence Agency, Croft emphasized that the intersection of intelligence and commodity trading is now critical for forecasting market movements. The transition is significant now because energy markets are reacting more sharply to geopolitical…