AI investment drives 47% of global trade growth in 2026

Global demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure accounted for 47% of total merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, according to the latest Global Trade Outlook report released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Friday, 9 October. The WTO data, published in Geneva, indicates that trade in AI-enabling goods—specifically semiconductors and servers—surged by 67% year-on-year during the first six months of 2026. This growth marks an acceleration from the expansion rates recorded in 2024 and 2025, effectively offsetting trade disruptions caused by regional conflicts in the Middle East. Capital expenditure to rise through 2027 Investment in AI-related hardware is projected to remain the primary driver of international merchandise trade for the next 18 months. Global AI infrastructure spending is forecasted to increase by a minimum of 30% throughout 2026. Market projections included in the WTO report suggest this capital expenditure will rise by an additional 10% to 20% in 2027. The report attributes the sustained momentum to the rapid deployment of large-scale data centres and the continuous integration of AI technologies across industrial sectors. While geopolitical tensions have impacted traditional trade routes, the high-value nature of semiconductor trade has maintained global growth figures. Impact on global trade dynamics The surge in AI investment is particularly significant for technology-exporting hubs and logistics centres. For the UAE and…