NCM links UAE summer rainfall to atmospheric shifts near Madagascar

The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) confirmed that recent heavy rainfall across the UAE, occurring despite temperatures nearing 50°C, is the result of a large-scale atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This weather system, which originates near Madagascar in the Indian Ocean, has pushed moisture-laden air into the Arabian Peninsula, triggering summer storms in the eastern and southern regions. How the Madden-Julian Oscillation affects the UAE The MJO is an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that circles the planet every 30 to 60 days. According to NCM forecasters, when the MJO enters its active phase over the Indian Ocean, it enhances the moisture supply to the local climate. This moisture interacts with the UAE’s mountainous terrain, specifically the Al Hajar range, causing "convective" clouds to form through a process called orographic lifting. On Wednesday, 5 August, this resulted in localized downpours and hail in areas such as Al Ain and parts of Fujairah. A second contributing factor is the intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This belt of low pressure typically sits near the equator but migrates north during the summer. Its current position has allowed monsoon-related moisture from the Arabian Sea to penetrate deeper into the UAE, providing the fuel needed for thunderstorms to develop in the heat of the afternoon. Impact on residents and seasonal outlook The rainfall is…